Predicting the Slide to Long-Term Homelessness: Model and Validation

In spite of numerous programs and interventions, homelessness remains a significant societal concern. Long-term homelessness is particularly problematic because it can be increasingly difficult to escape from, and because it represents a continuous drain on societal resources. This paper develops a model for predicting long-term homelessness in response to a simple question: if an individual becomes homeless, what influences the individual's slide to long-term homelessness? The data we analyze to answer the question comes from the City of Boston.