Interpretable Hawkes Process Spatial Crime Forecasting with TV-Regularization

Interpretable models for criminal justice forecasting are desirable due to the high-stakes nature of the application. While interpretable models have been developed for individual level forecasts of recidivism, interpretable models are lacking for the application of space-time crime hotspot forecasting. Here we introduce an interpretable Hawkes process model of crime that allows forecasts to capture near-repeat effects and spatial heterogeneity while being consumable in the form of easy-to-read score cards.