@article{558,
  author = {G. Mohler and S. Mishra and B. Ray and L. Magee and P. Huynh and M. Canada and D. O’Donnell and S. Flaxman},
  title = {A modified two-process Knox test for investigating the relationship between law enforcement opioid seizures and overdoses},
  abstract = {Recent research has shown an association between monthly law enforcement drug seizure events and accidental drug overdose deaths using cross-sectional data in a single state, whereby increased seizures correlated with more deaths. In this study, we conduct statistical analysis of street-level data on law enforcement drug seizures, along with street-level data on fatal and non-fatal overdose events, to determine possible micro-level causal associations between opioid-related drug seizures and overdoses. For this purpose, we introduce a novel, modified two-process Knox test that controls for self-excitation to measure clustering of overdoses nearby in space and time following law enforcement seizures. We observe a small, but statistically significant ( p  < 0.001), effect of 17.7 excess non-fatal overdoses per 1000 law enforcement seizures within three weeks and 250 m of a seizure. We discuss the potential causal mechanism for this association along with policy implications.},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
  volume = {477},
  chapter = {20210195},
  pages = {1},
  month = {06},
  issn = {1364-5021},
  url = {https://par.nsf.gov/biblio/10276834},
  doi = {10.1098/rspa.2021.0195},
}